V-Lab
Apple Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
37.96%
decreased by 2.18%
1 Week
37.04%
decreased by 3.10%
1 Month
34.33%
decreased by 5.81%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9855 | 7.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0803 | 8.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8632 | 59.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0084 | -1.42 |
| γ2 | 0.0004 | 0.05 |
| γ3 | 0.0181 | 3.75*** |
| γ4 | -0.0117 | -3.55*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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