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V-Lab

Apple Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

37.96%

decreased by 2.18%

1 Week

37.04%

decreased by 3.10%

1 Month

34.33%

decreased by 5.81%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Apple Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9855
7.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0803
8.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8632
59.93***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-0.0084
-1.42
γ20.0004
0.05
γ30.0181
3.75***
γ4-0.0117
-3.55***

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days