V-Lab
Tectonic Therapeutic Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
86.54%
decreased by 3.60%
1 Week
86.67%
decreased by 3.47%
1 Month
87.14%
decreased by 3.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 21, 2018 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 63-day half-lifev = 3.18 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 33.7646 | 1.09 |
| αARCH | 0.0534 | 8.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9891 | 103.89*** |
| νDF | 3.1791 | 6.07*** |
0.989
Persistence63d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 33.7646 | 1.09 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0534 | 8.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9891 | 103.89*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1791 | 6.07*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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