V-Lab
KBR Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
27.76%
decreased by 1.38%
1 Week
28.21%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Month
29.79%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 16, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 47-day half-lifev = 4.37 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.5327 | 0.97 |
| αARCH | 0.0697 | 6.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9854 | 65.12*** |
| νDF | 4.3683 | 2.22** |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.5327 | 0.97 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0697 | 6.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9854 | 65.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3683 | 2.22** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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