V-Lab
KBR Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
45.56%
increased by 1.60%
1 Week
44.61%
increased by 0.65%
1 Month
41.82%
decreased by 2.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 16, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2624 | 10.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0825 | 5.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8616 | 35.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0026 | 1.11 |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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