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V-Lab

NVIDIA Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

42.44%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Week

43.17%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

45.90%

increased by 2.65%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NVIDIA Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 22, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 141 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 186% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0381
12.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9215
249.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0710
13.00***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.19
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6943
0.42

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

141 days