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NVIDIA Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

43.60%

decreased by 2.41%

1 Week

43.83%

decreased by 2.18%

1 Month

44.51%

decreased by 1.50%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:28 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NVIDIA Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 22, 1999 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 359% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 359% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0380
2.97***
βGARCH0.8195
29.64***
γleverage0.1363
3.98***
λ₁tau intercept0.0317
1.35
λ₂forecast adj.0.0233
2.43**
λ₃tau persistence0.9745
90.61***

0.926

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0380
2.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8195
29.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1363
3.98***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0317
1.35
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0233
2.43**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9745
90.61***

Persistence:

0.926

Half-life:

9 days