V-Lab
NVIDIA Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
32.19%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
34.44%
increased by 1.98%
1 Month
39.62%
increased by 7.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 361% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 361% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0381 | 2.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8183 | 29.48*** |
| γleverage | 0.1376 | 3.98*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0320 | 1.35 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0234 | 2.44** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9744 | 90.38*** |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0381 | 2.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8183 | 29.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1376 | 3.98*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0320 | 1.35 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0234 | 2.44** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9744 | 90.38*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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