V-Lab
NVIDIA Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
44.69%
increased by 4.51%
1 Week
44.96%
increased by 4.78%
1 Month
46.03%
increased by 5.85%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 1999 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 363% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 363% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0378 | 2.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8188 | 29.53*** |
| γleverage | 0.1371 | 3.98*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0327 | 1.36 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0235 | 2.43** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9742 | 89.74*** |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0378 | 2.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8188 | 29.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1371 | 3.98*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0327 | 1.36 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0235 | 2.43** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9742 | 89.74*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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