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NVIDIA Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

32.19%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

34.44%

increased by 1.98%

1 Month

39.62%

increased by 7.16%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:53 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NVIDIA Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 22, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 361% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 361% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.0381
2.96***
βGARCH0.8183
29.48***
γleverage0.1376
3.98***
λ₁tau intercept0.0320
1.35
λ₂forecast adj.0.0234
2.44**
λ₃tau persistence0.9744
90.38***

0.925

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0381
2.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8183
29.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1376
3.98***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0320
1.35
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0234
2.44**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9744
90.38***

Persistence:

0.925

Half-life:

9 days