V-Lab
Pineapple Financial Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
82.09%
1 Week
101.03%
1 Month
153.42%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:46 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 1, 2023 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.2096 | 3.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7109 | 19.74*** |
| γleverage | 0.1468 | 1.16 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.64 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9913 | 30.03*** |
0.994
Persistence112d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2096 | 3.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7109 | 19.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1468 | 1.16 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.64 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9913 | 30.03*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
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