Inlif Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
138.81%
increased by 29.60%
1 Week
210.44%
increased by 101.23%
1 Month
468.11%
increased by 358.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifeδ = 0.50 · sub-quadratic power
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5400 | 0.61 |
| αARCH | 0.3959 | 1.42 |
| βGARCH | 0.6041 | 2.21** |
| γleverage | 0.1496 | 0.25 |
| δpower | 0.5000 | 1.41 |
0.929
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5400 | 0.61 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3959 | 1.42 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6041 | 2.21** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1496 | 0.25 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.41 |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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