V-Lab
Victoria's Secret & Co APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
87.52%
1 Week
82.53%
1 Month
74.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2021 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 306% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.28 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 0.88 |
| αARCH | 0.1080 | 1.69* |
| βGARCH | 0.7526 | 6.27*** |
| γleverage | 0.4972 | 2.39** |
| δpower | 1.2848 | 2.30** |
0.846
Persistence4d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.88 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1080 | 1.69* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7526 | 6.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4972 | 2.39** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2848 | 2.30** |
Persistence:
0.846
Half-life:
4 days
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