V-Lab
Liberty Defense Holdings Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
81.59%
decreased by 14.94%
1 Week
77.21%
decreased by 19.32%
1 Month
70.48%
decreased by 26.05%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3292 | 5.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1800 | 5.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6906 | 17.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0518 | -0.36 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 4.16*** |
Persistence:
0.839
Half-life:
4 days
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