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V-Lab

Liberty Defense Holdings Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

81.59%

decreased by 14.94%

1 Week

77.21%

decreased by 19.32%

1 Month

70.48%

decreased by 26.05%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Liberty Defense Holdings Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 22, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3292
5.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1800
5.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6906
17.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0518
-0.36
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
4.16***

Persistence:

0.839

Half-life:

4 days