V-Lab
Liberty Defense Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
54.11%
decreased by 4.42%
1 Week
55.69%
decreased by 2.84%
1 Month
60.41%
increased by 1.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 21.3404 | 3.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2227 | 3.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9632 | 66.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.1016 | 0.58 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
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