V-Lab
Liberty Defense Holdings Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
99.77%
decreased by 1.90%
1 Week
106.09%
increased by 4.42%
1 Month
107.51%
increased by 5.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0475 | 3.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1462 | 1.06 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -100.4930 | -1.40 |
| γ2 | 297.0011 | 2.20** |
Persistence:
0.146
Half-life:
0 days
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