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V-Lab

Liberty Defense Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

66.46%

decreased by 144.58%

1 Week

322,475,613.96%

increased by 322,475,402.92%

1 Month

2,179,813,019,504,196,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 2,179,813,019,504,196,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Liberty Defense Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 22, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4625
9.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0927
136.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4625
-9.41***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
10.67***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0628
26.19***

Persistence:

0.324

Half-life:

1 days