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V-Lab
V-Lab

Altria Group Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

27.75%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

28.71%

increased by 0.62%

1 Month

30.97%

increased by 2.88%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Altria Group Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9890
4.63***
αARCH0.0902
6.08***
βGARCH0.8339
28.81***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0000
0.00
γ20.0360
0.38
γ3-0.1119
-2.43**
γ40.1048
2.47**
γ5-0.0262
-0.58
γ60.0095
0.24
γ70.0186
0.55
γ8-0.1011
-2.59***
γ90.1788
2.52**

0.924

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9890
4.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0902
6.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8339
28.81***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ10.0000
0.00
γ20.0360
0.38
γ3-0.1119
-2.43**
γ40.1048
2.47**
γ5-0.0262
-0.58
γ60.0095
0.24
γ70.0186
0.55
γ8-0.1011
-2.59***
γ90.1788
2.52**

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days