V-Lab
Altria Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
21.15%
decreased by 1.20%
1 Week
21.29%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Month
21.81%
decreased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 64-day half-lifev = 4.57 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8909 | 1.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0713 | 8.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9893 | 93.55*** |
| νDF | 4.5721 | 2.81*** |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8909 | 1.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0713 | 8.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9893 | 93.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5721 | 2.81*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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