V-Lab
Energys Group Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
69.63%
1 Week
73.04%
1 Month
78.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0883 | 2.02** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7542 | 11.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0883 | -2.04** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 8.1965 | 0.31 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0930 | 0.52 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5210 | 0.51 |
Persistence:
0.798
Half-life:
3 days
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