V-Lab
Energys Group Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
144.85%
decreased by 8.27%
1 Week
204.83%
increased by 51.71%
1 Month
275.75%
increased by 122.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.10 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.10 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 393.0067 | 0.46 |
| αARCH | 0.2518 | 2.22** |
| βGARCH | 0.8429 | 2.61*** |
| νDF | 2.0991 | 14.35*** |
0.843
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 393.0067 | 0.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2518 | 2.22** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8429 | 2.61*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0991 | 14.35*** |
Persistence:
0.843
Half-life:
4 days
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