Energys Group Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
128.37%
decreased by 19.02%
1 Week
143.08%
decreased by 4.31%
1 Month
166.50%
increased by 19.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 2025 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 2.31 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 141.6933 | 0.56 |
| αscore | 0.2146 | 2.47** |
| βpersistence | 0.8653 | 3.79*** |
| νDF | 2.3122 | 4.87*** |
0.865
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 141.6933 | 0.56 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.2146 | 2.47** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8653 | 3.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.3122 | 4.87*** |
Persistence:
0.865
Half-life:
5 days
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