V-Lab
Energys Group Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
139.35%
decreased by 6.22%
1 Week
189.69%
increased by 44.12%
1 Month
242.37%
increased by 96.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-lifev = 2.15 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 283.4330 | 0.50 |
| αARCH | 0.2555 | 1.88* |
| βGARCH | 0.8069 | 2.25** |
| νDF | 2.1466 | 8.67*** |
0.807
Persistence3d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 283.4330 | 0.50 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2555 | 1.88* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8069 | 2.25** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.1466 | 8.67*** |
Persistence:
0.807
Half-life:
3 days
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