V-Lab
BARK Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
71.20%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Week
72.72%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
74.25%
increased by 1.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7151 | 2.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0646 | 2.32** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6733 | 4.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.4046 | -1.42 |
| γ2 | 0.5484 | 1.49 |
| γ3 | -0.1792 | -1.25 |
Persistence:
0.738
Half-life:
2 days
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