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V-Lab

BARK Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

87.80%

decreased by 9.66%

1 Week

86.28%

decreased by 11.18%

1 Month

82.21%

decreased by 15.25%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of BARK Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 11, 2020 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-lifev = 3.96 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst22.5329
1.05
αARCH0.0912
1.92*
βGARCH0.9299
11.72***
νDF3.9590
0.93

0.930

Persistence

10d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

22.5329
1.05
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0912
1.92*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9299
11.72***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.9590
0.93

Persistence:

0.930

Half-life:

10 days