V-Lab
BARK Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
87.80%
decreased by 9.66%
1 Week
86.28%
decreased by 11.18%
1 Month
82.21%
decreased by 15.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 11, 2020 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-lifev = 3.96 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 22.5329 | 1.05 |
| αARCH | 0.0912 | 1.92* |
| βGARCH | 0.9299 | 11.72*** |
| νDF | 3.9590 | 0.93 |
0.930
Persistence10d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 22.5329 | 1.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0912 | 1.92* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9299 | 11.72*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9590 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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