V-Lab
Hain Celestial Group Inc/The GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
87.51%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Week
87.33%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Month
86.62%
decreased by 1.92%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1994 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 226 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~226 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0301 | 2.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.0192 | 3.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9740 | 232.68*** |
| γleverage | 0.0074 | 1.08 |
0.997
Persistence226d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0301 | 2.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0192 | 3.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9740 | 232.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0074 | 1.08 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
226 days
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