V-Lab
Hain Celestial Group Inc/The GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
98.34%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Week
98.13%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Month
97.28%
decreased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1994 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 233 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~233 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0299 | 2.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.0195 | 3.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9739 | 232.77*** |
| γleverage | 0.0073 | 1.05 |
0.997
Persistence233d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0299 | 2.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0195 | 3.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9739 | 232.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0073 | 1.05 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
233 days
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