V-Lab
Sable Offshore Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
130.89%
decreased by 7.77%
1 Week
139.61%
increased by 0.95%
1 Month
151.12%
increased by 12.46%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 25, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2020 | 3.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2254 | 3.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5885 | 7.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -3.9817 | -0.60 |
| γ2 | 7.9187 | 0.73 |
| γ3 | -0.6031 | -0.09 |
| γ4 | -8.4948 | -1.35 |
| γ5 | 15.8737 | 2.43** |
| γ6 | -16.6169 | -3.18*** |
| γ7 | 2.8478 | 0.42 |
| γ8 | 5.6934 | 0.73 |
| γ9 | -5.1403 | -0.80 |
| γ10 | 3.0220 | 0.70 |
Persistence:
0.814
Half-life:
3 days
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