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V-Lab

Sable Offshore Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

178.05%

decreased by 11.99%

1 Week

192.51%

increased by 2.47%

1 Month

209.05%

increased by 19.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Sable Offshore Corp S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 25, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1859
3.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2371
3.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5465
6.39***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-4.3588
-0.62
γ27.9610
0.70
γ30.6689
0.09
γ4-10.7675
-1.67*
γ518.4863
2.93***
γ6-18.1252
-3.13***
γ73.2835
0.42
γ84.2962
0.54
γ9-1.6361
-0.26
γ10-0.8118
-0.17

Persistence:

0.784

Half-life:

3 days