Sable Offshore Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
178.05%
decreased by 11.99%
1 Week
192.51%
increased by 2.47%
1 Month
209.05%
increased by 19.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 25, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1859 | 3.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2371 | 3.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5465 | 6.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -4.3588 | -0.62 |
| γ2 | 7.9610 | 0.70 |
| γ3 | 0.6689 | 0.09 |
| γ4 | -10.7675 | -1.67* |
| γ5 | 18.4863 | 2.93*** |
| γ6 | -18.1252 | -3.13*** |
| γ7 | 3.2835 | 0.42 |
| γ8 | 4.2962 | 0.54 |
| γ9 | -1.6361 | -0.26 |
| γ10 | -0.8118 | -0.17 |
Persistence:
0.784
Half-life:
3 days
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