V-Lab
ZJK Industrial Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
82.40%
decreased by 2.00%
1 Week
89.08%
increased by 4.68%
1 Month
91.04%
increased by 6.64%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.6216 | 2.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.1711 | 1.40 |
| βGARCH | 0.1350 | 0.58 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 2.4632 | 2.96*** |
| γ2 | -2.5703 | -2.64*** |
0.306
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6216 | 2.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1711 | 1.40 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1350 | 0.58 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 2.4632 | 2.96*** |
| γ2 | -2.5703 | -2.64*** |
Persistence:
0.306
Half-life:
1 days
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