V-Lab
TON Strategy Co GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
107.14%
1 Week
118.31%
1 Month
155.17%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 51% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 7.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1840 | 8.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7691 | 54.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0940 | 2.32** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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