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V-Lab

TON Strategy Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

115.13%

decreased by 13.13%

1 Week

118.84%

decreased by 9.42%

1 Month

132.09%

increased by 3.83%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of TON Strategy Co GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 19, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 102 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

309.5216
5.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1263
65.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9932
883.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6943
33.77***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

102 days