V-Lab
TON Strategy Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
115.13%
decreased by 13.13%
1 Week
118.84%
decreased by 9.42%
1 Month
132.09%
increased by 3.83%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 102 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.69 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 309.5216 | 5.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1263 | 65.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9932 | 883.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6943 | 33.77*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
102 days
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