V-Lab
TON Strategy Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
110.09%
decreased by 9.33%
1 Week
121.28%
increased by 1.86%
1 Month
136.23%
increased by 16.81%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5112 | 5.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2359 | 4.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5883 | 7.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.4133 | 2.60*** |
| γ2 | -0.7671 | -2.80*** |
| γ3 | 0.9371 | 3.64*** |
| γ4 | -0.9937 | -3.32*** |
| γ5 | 0.5188 | 2.20** |
Persistence:
0.824
Half-life:
4 days
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