V-Lab
Ulta Beauty Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
44.47%
increased by 0.41%
1 Week
44.62%
increased by 0.56%
1 Month
45.21%
increased by 1.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 342 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~342 daysv = 3.75 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 21.0884 | 1.73* |
| αARCH | 0.0608 | 17.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9980 | 1,034.17*** |
| νDF | 3.7488 | 11.77*** |
0.998
Persistence342d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 21.0884 | 1.73* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0608 | 17.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9980 | 1,034.17*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7488 | 11.77*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
342 days
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