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Ulta Beauty Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

44.47%

increased by 0.41%

1 Week

44.62%

increased by 0.56%

1 Month

45.21%

increased by 1.15%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Ulta Beauty Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 25, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 342 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~342 daysv = 3.75 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst21.0884
1.73*
αARCH0.0608
17.04***
βGARCH0.9980
1,034.17***
νDF3.7488
11.77***

0.998

Persistence

342d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

21.0884
1.73*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0608
17.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9980
1,034.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7488
11.77***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

342 days