Ulta Beauty Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
40.29%
1 Week
40.48%
1 Month
41.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 326 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 20.3863 | 1.68* |
| αscore | 0.0612 | 17.08*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9979 | 957.65*** |
| νDF | 3.7648 | 11.52*** |
0.998
Persistence326d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 20.3863 | 1.68* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0612 | 17.08*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9979 | 957.65*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.7648 | 11.52*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
326 days
Other Ulta Beauty Inc Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equities