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Ulta Beauty Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

40.29%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

40.48%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

41.20%

increased by 0.87%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ulta Beauty Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 25, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 326 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~326 daysv = 3.76 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run20.3863
1.68*
αscore0.0612
17.08***
βpersistence0.9979
957.65***
νDF3.7648
11.52***

0.998

Persistence

326d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

20.3863
1.68*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0612
17.08***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9979
957.65***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.7648
11.52***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

326 days