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V-Lab

Ulta Beauty Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

31.68%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

32.87%

increased by 0.35%

1 Month

37.03%

increased by 4.51%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ulta Beauty Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 25, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1869
2.89***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9044
65.13***
γleverage0.1745
4.64***

0.992

Persistence

83d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1869
2.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9044
65.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1745
4.64***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

83 days