V-Lab
Ulta Beauty Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
33.11%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
34.25%
increased by 0.39%
1 Month
38.27%
increased by 4.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1876 | 11.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9034 | 258.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1775 | 18.62*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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