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V-Lab

Ulta Beauty Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

33.11%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

34.25%

increased by 0.39%

1 Month

38.27%

increased by 4.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ulta Beauty Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 25, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1876
11.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9034
258.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1775
18.62***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

88 days