V-Lab
Ulta Beauty Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
41.24%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Week
42.04%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
44.94%
increased by 2.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1872 | 11.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9043 | 260.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1753 | 18.59*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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