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V-Lab

Ulta Beauty Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

30.57%

increased by 1.50%

1 Week

31.82%

increased by 2.75%

1 Month

36.15%

increased by 7.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ulta Beauty Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 25, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~81 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1875
2.90***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9046
65.21***
γleverage0.1737
4.64***

0.991

Persistence

81d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1875
2.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9046
65.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1737
4.64***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

81 days