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V-Lab

Ulta Beauty Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

41.24%

decreased by 1.52%

1 Week

42.04%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Month

44.94%

increased by 2.18%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ulta Beauty Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 25, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1872
11.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9043
260.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1753
18.59***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

86 days