V-Lab
Ulta Beauty Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
31.68%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
32.87%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
37.03%
increased by 4.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 2007 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1869 | 2.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9044 | 65.13*** |
| γleverage | 0.1745 | 4.64*** |
0.992
Persistence83d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1869 | 2.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9044 | 65.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1745 | 4.64*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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