V-Lab
Ulta Beauty Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
37.94%
decreased by 3.47%
1 Week
38.49%
decreased by 2.92%
1 Month
39.00%
decreased by 2.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2230 | 5.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1678 | 3.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5473 | 5.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0386 | -0.39 |
| γ2 | 0.1456 | 0.99 |
| γ3 | -0.1946 | -1.75* |
| γ4 | 0.2594 | 2.18** |
| γ5 | -0.3519 | -2.86*** |
| γ6 | 0.2858 | 2.51** |
| γ7 | -0.1350 | -1.88* |
Persistence:
0.715
Half-life:
2 days
Other Ulta Beauty Inc Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities