V-Lab
Ulta Beauty Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
31.87%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
34.92%
increased by 2.31%
1 Month
37.55%
increased by 4.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2171 | 4.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1712 | 3.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5431 | 5.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0437 | -0.43 |
| γ2 | 0.1549 | 1.04 |
| γ3 | -0.2029 | -1.79* |
| γ4 | 0.2671 | 2.20** |
| γ5 | -0.3549 | -2.83*** |
| γ6 | 0.2800 | 2.44** |
| γ7 | -0.1262 | -1.75* |
Persistence:
0.714
Half-life:
2 days
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