Shengfeng Development Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
71.35%
decreased by 13.13%
1 Week
80.20%
decreased by 4.28%
1 Month
82.62%
decreased by 1.86%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2023 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5029 | 2.21** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2739 | 2.43** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0098 | 0.12 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -6.5283 | -1.13 |
| γ2 | 12.1359 | 1.18 |
| γ3 | -13.9588 | -1.18 |
| γ4 | 14.3961 | 1.30 |
| γ5 | -1.5911 | -0.22 |
| γ6 | -10.1979 | -1.71* |
| γ7 | 7.0835 | 1.62 |
Persistence:
0.284
Half-life:
1 days
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