V-Lab
Shengfeng Development Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
112.77%
increased by 39.03%
1 Week
90.28%
increased by 16.54%
1 Month
82.52%
increased by 8.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5171 | 2.21** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2741 | 2.45** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0092 | 0.11 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -6.1342 | -1.14 |
| γ2 | 11.4754 | 1.21 |
| γ3 | -13.6242 | -1.23 |
| γ4 | 15.0974 | 1.41 |
| γ5 | -3.6424 | -0.51 |
| γ6 | -8.1062 | -1.38 |
| γ7 | 6.0909 | 1.35 |
Persistence:
0.283
Half-life:
1 days
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