Shengfeng Development Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
147.08%
increased by 9.52%
1 Week
157.55%
increased by 19.99%
1 Month
160.59%
increased by 23.03%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2023 to Oct 19, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7134 | 2.35** |
| αARCH | 0.2848 | 2.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0161 | 0.21 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.1671 | -0.14 |
| γ2 | -2.5964 | -0.20 |
| γ3 | 13.1682 | 1.11 |
| γ4 | -25.1211 | -1.28 |
| γ5 | 26.9594 | 1.18 |
| γ6 | -9.2777 | -0.55 |
| γ7 | 1.3520 | 0.10 |
| γ8 | -14.8192 | -1.14 |
| γ9 | 23.0898 | 2.10** |
| γ10 | -17.3704 | -2.62*** |
0.301
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7134 | 2.35** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2848 | 2.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0161 | 0.21 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.1671 | -0.14 |
| γ2 | -2.5964 | -0.20 |
| γ3 | 13.1682 | 1.11 |
| γ4 | -25.1211 | -1.28 |
| γ5 | 26.9594 | 1.18 |
| γ6 | -9.2777 | -0.55 |
| γ7 | 1.3520 | 0.10 |
| γ8 | -14.8192 | -1.14 |
| γ9 | 23.0898 | 2.10** |
| γ10 | -17.3704 | -2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.301
Half-life:
1 days
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