Shengfeng Development Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
128.02%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Week
146.30%
increased by 16.35%
1 Month
151.47%
increased by 21.52%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2023 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7049 | 2.42** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2989 | 2.46** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0070 | 0.09 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.5540 | 0.05 |
| γ2 | -8.8072 | -0.48 |
| γ3 | 25.1358 | 1.35 |
| γ4 | -41.0782 | -1.65* |
| γ5 | 41.8989 | 1.93* |
| γ6 | -23.4921 | -2.08** |
| γ7 | 16.5103 | 1.51 |
| γ8 | -16.7972 | -1.00 |
| γ9 | -2.2753 | -0.10 |
| γ10 | 30.6941 | 1.13 |
Persistence:
0.306
Half-life:
1 days
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