Allurion Technologies Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
232.58%
1 Week
284.98%
1 Month
1,216.15%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 38508 trading days (~152.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0725 | 6.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6775 | 371.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 20.07*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 2.59*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2065 | 2.39** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7935 | 7.89*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
38508 days
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