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V-Lab

Allurion Technologies Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

91.71%

decreased by 7.60%

1 Week

125.58%

increased by 26.27%

1 Month

558.17%

increased by 458.86%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:24 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Allurion Technologies Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2021 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 34657 trading days (~137.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0741
6.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6759
331.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
19.84***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

8.7316
2.58**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2068
2.40**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7932
7.93***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

34657 days