Remark Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
798.47%
1 Week
796.35%
1 Month
787.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 10, 2003 to Oct 19, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 245 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 371.2854 | 1.84* |
| αscore | 0.0958 | 29.54*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9972 | 706.21*** |
| νDF | 2.5741 | 75.96*** |
0.997
Persistence245d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 371.2854 | 1.84* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0958 | 29.54*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 706.21*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.5741 | 75.96*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
245 days
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