V-Lab
Remark Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
118.76%
1 Week
120.04%
1 Month
124.95%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 09:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 10, 2003 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 287 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 308.2149 | 1.90* |
| αARCH | 0.0878 | 27.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9976 | 882.04*** |
| νDF | 2.7577 | 51.79*** |
0.998
Persistence287d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 308.2149 | 1.90* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0878 | 27.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9976 | 882.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7577 | 51.79*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
287 days
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