V-Lab
Remark Holdings Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
66.68%
decreased by 5.86%
1 Week
69.71%
decreased by 2.83%
1 Month
80.52%
increased by 7.98%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 09:18 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 10, 2003 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 266 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~266 daysv = 2.66 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 333.5952 | 1.88* |
| αARCH | 0.0911 | 28.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9974 | 799.84*** |
| νDF | 2.6600 | 63.30*** |
0.997
Persistence266d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 333.5952 | 1.88* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0911 | 28.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 799.84*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6600 | 63.30*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
266 days
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