V-Lab
Luna Innovations Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
72.34%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
81.48%
increased by 9.01%
1 Month
93.83%
increased by 21.36%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 2, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1137 | 14.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7377 | 48.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0092 | 0.82 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 7.4138 | 0.88 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7586 | 0.99 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.856
Half-life:
4 days
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