V-Lab
Luna Innovations Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
59.28%
decreased by 5.20%
1 Week
64.07%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
75.79%
increased by 11.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 2, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1314 | 9.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3218 | 6.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0178 | 1.28 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.6775 | 0.60 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7413 | 0.68 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1558 | 0.13 |
Persistence:
0.462
Half-life:
1 days
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