V-Lab
Luna Innovations Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
42.56%
increased by 0.30%
1 Week
47.67%
increased by 5.41%
1 Month
61.22%
increased by 18.96%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 2, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 34.5606 | 5.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0946 | 32.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9654 | 162.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8188 | 27.49*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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