V-Lab
Luna Innovations Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
72.56%
increased by 7.06%
1 Week
74.10%
increased by 8.60%
1 Month
78.85%
increased by 13.35%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 2, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 34.8090 | 5.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0940 | 33.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9668 | 165.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8129 | 28.21*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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