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V-Lab

CNH Industrial NV Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

52.46%

decreased by 3.08%

1 Week

51.17%

decreased by 4.37%

1 Month

47.35%

decreased by 8.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CNH Industrial NV S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 2013 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8131
10.67***
αARCH0.0812
5.49***
βGARCH0.8634
35.16***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0026
-2.11**

0.945

Persistence

12d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8131
10.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0812
5.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8634
35.16***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0026
-2.11**

Persistence:

0.945

Half-life:

12 days