V-Lab
CNH Industrial NV GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
48.45%
decreased by 2.22%
1 Week
47.60%
decreased by 3.07%
1 Month
44.84%
decreased by 5.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2013 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1894 | 2.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.0386 | 2.10** |
| βGARCH | 0.8944 | 52.58*** |
| γleverage | 0.0572 | 1.27 |
0.962
Persistence18d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1894 | 2.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0386 | 2.10** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8944 | 52.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0572 | 1.27 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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