V-Lab
Huron Consulting Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
38.53%
increased by 3.87%
1 Week
38.58%
increased by 3.92%
1 Month
38.76%
increased by 4.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 13, 2004 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 35-day half-lifev = 3.39 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.3068 | 0.85 |
| αARCH | 0.0607 | 5.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9803 | 41.36*** |
| νDF | 3.3932 | 2.62*** |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.3068 | 0.85 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0607 | 5.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9803 | 41.36*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3932 | 2.62*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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