Huron Consulting Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
41.52%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
41.46%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Month
41.24%
decreased by 1.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 13, 2004 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-lifev = 3.45 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 6.2829 | 0.86 |
| αscore | 0.0589 | 5.61*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9810 | 43.50*** |
| νDF | 3.4477 | 2.53** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 6.2829 | 0.86 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0589 | 5.61*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9810 | 43.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4477 | 2.53** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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