Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
57.40%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
58.35%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
59.48%
increased by 1.86%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2014 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.1752 | 1.96* |
| αARCH | 0.0462 | 1.07 |
| βGARCH | 0.7065 | 7.12*** |
| γleverage | 0.0507 | 0.63 |
0.778
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1752 | 1.96* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0462 | 1.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7065 | 7.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0507 | 0.63 |
Persistence:
0.778
Half-life:
3 days
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