V-Lab
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
54.43%
decreased by 1.75%
1 Week
55.48%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Month
57.21%
increased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 120% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9888 | 12.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0468 | 6.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7784 | 54.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0560 | 4.82*** |
Persistence:
0.853
Half-life:
4 days
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