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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

69.23%

decreased by 1.29%

1 Week

66.11%

decreased by 4.41%

1 Month

62.41%

decreased by 8.11%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 31, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.4913
1.65*
αARCH0.0472
0.94
βGARCH0.6894
5.58***
γleverage0.0477
0.48

0.761

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.4913
1.65*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0472
0.94
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6894
5.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0477
0.48

Persistence:

0.761

Half-life:

3 days