V-Lab
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
52.92%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Week
54.34%
increased by 0.52%
1 Month
56.69%
increased by 2.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 118% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9746 | 12.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0473 | 6.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7786 | 54.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0557 | 4.79*** |
Persistence:
0.854
Half-life:
4 days
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