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V-Lab

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

73.71%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

74.34%

increased by 0.56%

1 Month

76.62%

increased by 2.84%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 31, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.0453
0.77
βGARCH0.6141
7.17***
γleverage0.0952
1.53
λ₁tau intercept0.0614
0.20
λ₂forecast adj.0.0112
0.86
λ₃tau persistence0.9856
29.96***

0.707

Persistence

2d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0453
0.77
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6141
7.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0952
1.53
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0614
0.20
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0112
0.86
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9856
29.96***

Persistence:

0.707

Half-life:

2 days