V-Lab
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
73.71%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
74.34%
increased by 0.56%
1 Month
76.62%
increased by 2.84%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0453 | 0.77 |
| βGARCH | 0.6141 | 7.17*** |
| γleverage | 0.0952 | 1.53 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0614 | 0.20 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0112 | 0.86 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9856 | 29.96*** |
0.707
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0453 | 0.77 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6141 | 7.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0952 | 1.53 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0614 | 0.20 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0112 | 0.86 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9856 | 29.96*** |
Persistence:
0.707
Half-life:
2 days
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