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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

55.98%

decreased by 2.35%

1 Week

56.13%

decreased by 2.20%

1 Month

56.63%

decreased by 1.70%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 31, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.48 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

13.6496
5.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0526
12.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9715
160.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4780
3.03***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

24 days