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V-Lab

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

51.58%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Week

51.99%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Month

53.34%

increased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 31, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

13.5612
6.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0529
12.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9709
160.04***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.5295
3.01***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

24 days