V-Lab
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
65.72%
increased by 4.45%
1 Week
65.38%
increased by 4.11%
1 Month
64.22%
increased by 2.95%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 5.17 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 13.9157 | 1.25 |
| αARCH | 0.0519 | 2.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9714 | 34.78*** |
| νDF | 5.1667 | 0.73 |
0.971
Persistence24d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.9157 | 1.25 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0519 | 2.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9714 | 34.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1667 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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