Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
56.59%
increased by 1.30%
1 Week
56.73%
increased by 1.44%
1 Month
57.18%
increased by 1.89%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2014 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 5.21 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 13.8115 | 1.29 |
| αARCH | 0.0516 | 2.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9713 | 35.34*** |
| νDF | 5.2136 | 0.73 |
0.971
Persistence24d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.8115 | 1.29 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0516 | 2.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9713 | 35.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2136 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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