V-Lab
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
51.58%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
51.99%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
53.34%
increased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.5612 | 6.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0529 | 12.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9709 | 160.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.5295 | 3.01*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
Other Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equities