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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

56.59%

increased by 1.30%

1 Week

56.73%

increased by 1.44%

1 Month

57.18%

increased by 1.89%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 31, 2014 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 5.21 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst13.8115
1.29
αARCH0.0516
2.94***
βGARCH0.9713
35.34***
νDF5.2136
0.73

0.971

Persistence

24d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

13.8115
1.29
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0516
2.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9713
35.34***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.2136
0.73

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

24 days