V-Lab
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
55.98%
decreased by 2.35%
1 Week
56.13%
decreased by 2.20%
1 Month
56.63%
decreased by 1.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.48 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.6496 | 5.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0526 | 12.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9715 | 160.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4780 | 3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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