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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

65.72%

increased by 4.45%

1 Week

65.38%

increased by 4.11%

1 Month

64.22%

increased by 2.95%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 31, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 5.17 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst13.9157
1.25
αARCH0.0519
2.89***
βGARCH0.9714
34.78***
νDF5.1667
0.73

0.971

Persistence

24d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

13.9157
1.25
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0519
2.89***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9714
34.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1667
0.73

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

24 days