V-Lab
General Mills Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
30.98%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
30.82%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
30.19%
decreased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0173 | 3.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0274 | 3.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9545 | 155.91*** |
| γleverage | 0.0165 | 1.27 |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0173 | 3.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0274 | 3.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9545 | 155.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0165 | 1.27 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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