V-Lab
General Mills Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
25.53%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
25.49%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
25.38%
decreased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2542 | 10.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.0639 | 6.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8865 | 54.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0024 | 0.53 |
| γ2 | -0.0039 | -0.52 |
| γ3 | 0.0090 | 1.64 |
| γ4 | -0.0126 | -3.80*** |
0.950
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2542 | 10.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0639 | 6.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8865 | 54.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0024 | 0.53 |
| γ2 | -0.0039 | -0.52 |
| γ3 | 0.0090 | 1.64 |
| γ4 | -0.0126 | -3.80*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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