V-Lab
General Mills Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
28.96%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
29.55%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
30.91%
increased by 1.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2306 | 10.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.0702 | 6.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8447 | 38.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0143 | -0.74 |
| γ2 | 0.0441 | 1.38 |
| γ3 | -0.0691 | -2.35** |
| γ4 | 0.0754 | 2.53** |
| γ5 | -0.0605 | -2.31** |
| γ6 | 0.0659 | 2.82*** |
| γ7 | -0.0912 | -3.66*** |
| γ8 | 0.1211 | 3.11*** |
0.915
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2306 | 10.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0702 | 6.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8447 | 38.92*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0143 | -0.74 |
| γ2 | 0.0441 | 1.38 |
| γ3 | -0.0691 | -2.35** |
| γ4 | 0.0754 | 2.53** |
| γ5 | -0.0605 | -2.31** |
| γ6 | 0.0659 | 2.82*** |
| γ7 | -0.0912 | -3.66*** |
| γ8 | 0.1211 | 3.11*** |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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