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V-Lab
V-Lab

General Mills Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

28.96%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Week

29.55%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

30.91%

increased by 1.45%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of General Mills Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2306
10.21***
αARCH0.0702
6.41***
βGARCH0.8447
38.92***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0143
-0.74
γ20.0441
1.38
γ3-0.0691
-2.35**
γ40.0754
2.53**
γ5-0.0605
-2.31**
γ60.0659
2.82***
γ7-0.0912
-3.66***
γ80.1211
3.11***

0.915

Persistence

8d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2306
10.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0702
6.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8447
38.92***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.0143
-0.74
γ20.0441
1.38
γ3-0.0691
-2.35**
γ40.0754
2.53**
γ5-0.0605
-2.31**
γ60.0659
2.82***
γ7-0.0912
-3.66***
γ80.1211
3.11***

Persistence:

0.915

Half-life:

8 days