V-Lab
General Mills Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
33.11%
1 Week
32.93%
1 Month
32.30%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 103% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0195 | 4.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.0526 | 6.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9461 | 119.91*** |
| γleverage | 0.3301 | 3.23*** |
| δpower | 1.0289 | 6.63*** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0195 | 4.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0526 | 6.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9461 | 119.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3301 | 3.23*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0289 | 6.63*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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