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V-Lab

General Mills Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

33.11%

increased by 0.31%

1 Week

32.93%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

32.30%

decreased by 0.50%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of General Mills Inc APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 103% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.03 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 103% more than positive returnsδ = 1.03 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0195
4.17***
αARCH0.0526
6.55***
βGARCH0.9461
119.91***
γleverage0.3301
3.23***
δpower1.0289
6.63***

0.988

Persistence

58d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0195
4.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0526
6.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9461
119.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3301
3.23***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0289
6.63***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days