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General Mills Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

30.00%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

29.85%

decreased by 0.90%

1 Month

29.28%

decreased by 1.47%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of General Mills Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 daysv = 4.95 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7539
1.10
αARCH0.0474
6.60***
βGARCH0.9901
105.94***
νDF4.9515
1.83*

0.990

Persistence

70d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7539
1.10
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0474
6.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9901
105.94***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.9515
1.83*

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days