V-Lab
General Mills Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
34.39%
1 Week
34.19%
1 Month
33.40%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7642 | 1.10 |
| αARCH | 0.0473 | 6.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9903 | 107.49*** |
| νDF | 4.9492 | 1.85* |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7642 | 1.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0473 | 6.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9903 | 107.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9492 | 1.85* |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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