V-Lab
Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
141.01%
decreased by 6.31%
1 Week
139.43%
decreased by 7.89%
1 Month
135.05%
decreased by 12.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6042 | 2.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0705 | 4.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8681 | 31.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.2518 | -0.90 |
| γ2 | 0.5838 | 1.50 |
| γ3 | -0.5322 | -3.24*** |
| γ4 | 0.1772 | 1.71* |
| γ5 | 0.1461 | 1.50 |
| γ6 | 0.0025 | 0.03 |
| γ7 | -0.3011 | -3.47*** |
| γ8 | 0.1732 | 1.38 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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