V-Lab
Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
112.62%
decreased by 2.43%
1 Week
116.32%
increased by 1.27%
1 Month
126.42%
increased by 11.37%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2002 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5732 | 2.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.0747 | 6.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8749 | 42.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4384 | -1.18 |
| γ2 | 0.7383 | 1.57 |
| γ3 | -0.2357 | -0.86 |
| γ4 | -0.2720 | -1.10 |
| γ5 | 0.2505 | 1.17 |
| γ6 | -0.0675 | -0.28 |
| γ7 | 0.4421 | 1.04 |
| γ8 | -0.7695 | -1.28 |
| γ9 | 0.4368 | 0.88 |
| γ10 | -0.1613 | -0.72 |
0.950
Persistence13d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5732 | 2.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0747 | 6.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8749 | 42.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4384 | -1.18 |
| γ2 | 0.7383 | 1.57 |
| γ3 | -0.2357 | -0.86 |
| γ4 | -0.2720 | -1.10 |
| γ5 | 0.2505 | 1.17 |
| γ6 | -0.0675 | -0.28 |
| γ7 | 0.4421 | 1.04 |
| γ8 | -0.7695 | -1.28 |
| γ9 | 0.4368 | 0.88 |
| γ10 | -0.1613 | -0.72 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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