V-Lab
Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
110.00%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Week
114.08%
increased by 2.56%
1 Month
125.17%
increased by 13.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5738 | 2.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0745 | 6.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8751 | 42.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4374 | -1.18 |
| γ2 | 0.7350 | 1.57 |
| γ3 | -0.2292 | -0.83 |
| γ4 | -0.2786 | -1.12 |
| γ5 | 0.2533 | 1.18 |
| γ6 | -0.0698 | -0.28 |
| γ7 | 0.4452 | 1.03 |
| γ8 | -0.7663 | -1.27 |
| γ9 | 0.4324 | 0.88 |
| γ10 | -0.1641 | -0.76 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
Other Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities