V-Lab
Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
82.54%
decreased by 2.91%
1 Week
82.17%
decreased by 3.28%
1 Month
81.14%
decreased by 4.31%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2002 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5578 | 2.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0783 | 6.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8676 | 39.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.4620 | -1.25 |
| γ2 | 0.7702 | 1.65* |
| γ3 | -0.2413 | -0.88 |
| γ4 | -0.2869 | -1.17 |
| γ5 | 0.2790 | 1.32 |
| γ6 | -0.1053 | -0.44 |
| γ7 | 0.4925 | 1.18 |
| γ8 | -0.8500 | -1.46 |
| γ9 | 0.6424 | 1.31 |
| γ10 | -0.8168 | -2.14** |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
12 days
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