V-Lab
Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
113.84%
decreased by 2.41%
1 Week
116.91%
increased by 0.66%
1 Month
125.87%
increased by 9.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2002 to Sep 11, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.0052 | 0.39 |
| βGARCH | 0.8914 | 11.07*** |
| γleverage | 0.0486 | 2.05** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6238 | 2.63*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 9.45*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0052 | 0.39 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8914 | 11.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0486 | 2.05** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6238 | 2.63*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 9.45*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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