V-Lab
Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
145.01%
decreased by 3.29%
1 Week
139.94%
decreased by 8.36%
1 Month
136.57%
decreased by 11.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0043 | 0.81 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8980 | 45.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0468 | 8.14*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6187 | 0.05 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 0.05 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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