V-Lab
Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
98.30%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
102.63%
increased by 3.77%
1 Month
115.62%
increased by 16.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2002 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.0051 | 0.38 |
| βGARCH | 0.8908 | 11.02*** |
| γleverage | 0.0495 | 2.06** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6251 | 2.63*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 9.43*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.921
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0051 | 0.38 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8908 | 11.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0495 | 2.06** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6251 | 2.63*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 9.43*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.921
Half-life:
8 days
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