V-Lab
Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
132.60%
1 Week
132.62%
1 Month
132.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2002 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 270% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0101 | 0.74 |
| αARCH | 0.0071 | 1.45 |
| βGARCH | 0.9833 | 107.52*** |
| γleverage | 0.0192 | 2.25** |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0101 | 0.74 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0071 | 1.45 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9833 | 107.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0192 | 2.25** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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