V-Lab
Regencell Bioscience Hol Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
160.66%
1 Week
160.68%
1 Month
160.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 299% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0101 | 2.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0066 | 5.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9835 | 432.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0198 | 9.33*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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