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Amazon.com Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

35.32%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Week

35.49%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Month

36.17%

decreased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Amazon.com Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 16, 1997 to Oct 23, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 4.35 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run29.0921
2.16**
αscore0.0551
20.28***
βpersistence0.9990
2,312.50***
νDF4.3531
12.76***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

29.0921
2.16**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0551
20.28***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9990
2,312.50***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3531
12.76***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days