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Amazon.com Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

28.95%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

29.17%

increased by 0.31%

1 Month

30.03%

increased by 1.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Amazon.com Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 16, 1997 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 662 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~662 daysv = 4.31 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst27.5962
2.15**
αARCH0.0545
20.30***
βGARCH0.9990
2,210.08***
νDF4.3061
13.14***

0.999

Persistence

662d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

27.5962
2.15**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0545
20.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
2,210.08***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3061
13.14***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

662 days