Skip to main content
V-Lab

Amazon.com Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

36.75%

decreased by 1.50%

1 Week

36.92%

decreased by 1.33%

1 Month

37.54%

decreased by 0.71%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Amazon.com Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 16, 1997 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 664 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

27.8096
8.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0544
81.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
8,919.25***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2949
52.99***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

664 days