V-Lab
Amazon.com Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
33.36%
increased by 0.78%
1 Week
33.54%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
34.26%
increased by 1.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 663 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~663 daysv = 4.30 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 27.6886 | 2.15** |
| αARCH | 0.0544 | 20.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 2,219.90*** |
| νDF | 4.2983 | 13.21*** |
0.999
Persistence663d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 27.6886 | 2.15** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0544 | 20.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 2,219.90*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2983 | 13.21*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
663 days
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