V-Lab
Amazon.com Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
28.95%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
29.17%
increased by 0.31%
1 Month
30.03%
increased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 1997 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 662 trading days (~2.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~662 daysv = 4.31 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 27.5962 | 2.15** |
| αARCH | 0.0545 | 20.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 2,210.08*** |
| νDF | 4.3061 | 13.14*** |
0.999
Persistence662d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 27.5962 | 2.15** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0545 | 20.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 2,210.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3061 | 13.14*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
662 days
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