V-Lab
Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
19.96%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
19.95%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
19.94%
decreased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0161 | 1.57 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9633 | 108.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0525 | 3.92*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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