Horizon Kinetics JPN QWN OPR GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
18.66%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
18.67%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
18.73%
decreased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0171 | 1.61 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9627 | 103.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0517 | 3.60*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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